My question was, we generally invest in gold in the recent past to hedge our portfolios, providing some protection, especially during downturns. Now, in the current situation of so much war, will this impact our risk distribution? People invest in equities thinking they can trust the economy. You can invest long-term, and a certain percentage of gold is advised to be held to control portfolio risk. So, in the current situation, do we need to re-strategize? Especially from an Indian perspective, increase the percentage of gold and reduce the percentage of equities.
So, when we talk about the Indian economy, you say that we in India have invested in the stock market, whether through mutual funds, SIPs, or directly investing in stocks. Why? As companies grow, you will also see growth. And how do companies grow? Companies, that is, how do businesses grow? They sell more products as they sell their products and services, meaning as the economy grows. You can say that as people buy their products, there’s a slight difference between the two. Right? They sell only when someone buys. Correct. Correct.
Well, when do people buy? When do they buy more and when do they buy less? In other words, is your salary or income rising rapidly? Actually, consumption is increasing, and that consumption is coming through loans. Exactly, if you continue to consume by taking loans, there will come a breaking point at some point, when the bank will ask you for its money back.
Nowadays, the situation has reached such a level that people are even buying iPhones on EMI. People are taking loans for holidays. So, what could be worse than this? Explain it to me. If someone is taking a loan for their home, it’s understandable. They’re taking it for a need. Someone is taking a loan for show-off. So, you can get an idea of how dire the overall situation is. How people are moving money around, and who those people are—you guys are the ones. So, you know exactly where they borrowed money from and where they lent it. Meaning, the whole game is going on day to day.
But can it continue like this forever? There will come a point when you’ll have to repay that loan. And when you take out a loan, it accrues interest, and that interest is very high. And when it’s compounded, the money you took today thinking, “I’ve taken a loan of ₹100,” becomes 1 lakh without even realizing it. And is your income growing accordingly? No, sir, there’s no income at all. And aren’t many jobs being created in the world? This is the ground reality.
But what happens is that we can’t see it even after seeing it because we’ve been brainwashed. Whatever we’ve seen in the past few years, we think the world will continue to function the same way. Because we all have a habit of never questioning our own set of beliefs because we fear that if that belief breaks, where will we go? In terms of psychological comfort, we cling to them, and you can also call it a herd mentality. It’s like sheep and goats, if everyone is running in one direction, even if it’s wrong. Just like in the ocean, all the fish are running towards a net, and even if it’s about to die, they will still follow. No fish will separate because if they separate, they feel like they don’t know what will happen. So, we keep doing what everyone else is doing. We never question what’s actually happening in the world.
So this is a so-called herd mentality: whatever is happening around, whatever is being discussed, there are so-called experts who come and tell you something. Who are those experts? They have limited knowledge of their own domain; they know nothing else. Isn’t it true? For example, the person who comes and tells you about the stock market or finance is an entrepreneur? An entrepreneur is a different person who knows about his business, and the so-called financial expert knows only what he has read or heard. All this knowledge is being passed on one after the other, based on what they have seen happen in the last 10, 20, 30, 50, or 100 years. The same books, the same people, are being followed all over the world, the same idols, everyone is following the same pattern.
What if I say that something so big is happening in the world right now that you people cannot even imagine it in your dreams? You can’t even think in the wildest of your dreams.
Like you said that we buy gold to hedge our portfolio. And many people say that gold and silver have become very expensive these days. I will buy it when it comes down. This is the mentality of people. This is the mindset of fools. Why? Because you are weighing gold in money. Whereas what should be done is the opposite. What does money mean? A piece of paper costs you a lot. And gold or silver, which is actually a physical asset, you are breaking it into a piece of paper. Whereas what should be done? Earlier, this much gold was available for ₹1 lakh. Now this much gold is available. One should think like this. Not how much is this much gold worth and how much will it cost. Especially in times when everything is changing so rapidly.
But because you’re like your financial experts or so-called financial influencers, you’re living in your own bubble. So you have no idea what’s coming. Your own job, your own family, your own savings, some people’s opinions about how things should be done, how things should be done. We keep doing the same things, and everyone is acting the same way. No one is stopping to see what’s actually happening in the world. Because if it’s something small, you can handle it the way you did in the past. But what if it’s something big? Then your whole life will turn upside down.
Now tell me, can any of you relate to what I’m saying? If I’m saying something huge is happening that hasn’t happened in the last 100 years, then why is it happening? You people are acting the same way you did 10-20 years ago: all your money is invested in the stock market, in property, and a little money is invested in gold to hedge your portfolio. Why? Because financial experts say so, and we feel that silver is too expensive. It’s risen too much, so we’ll buy it when it comes down.
Many people don’t even know that the prices of silver and gold aren’t determined in India. They’re determined in the COMEX and LBMA. Price discovery happens there. Based on that, prices are now determined in global markets. And now, the pattern is gradually changing. If you look at silver prices from West to East, there’s a huge gap. There’s a disparity between the price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the price on the gold coins. If the gold coins are $75, say, then in Shanghai it’s $80. The price of physical coins is different, and the price of paper coins is different. Do you understand the difference between paper coins and physical coins? If you don’t, then understand. And understand what an asset actually is, and what a bubble is. We never ask these questions. What is a bubble and what is an actual asset?
Let me explain it very simply, what is an asset and what is a bubble? Now, you’ll see your entire understanding shaken. Everything will turn upside down. Whatever you think about it, wherever demand is very high and supply is very low, that’s called an asset. And where supply is unlimited and demand is nonexistent, or demand is artificial, what is that? A bubble. That is, where people are investing in an asset with the sole hope that its value will increase tomorrow, and there’s no reason for it. So, what is that? A bubble. That is, where there’s actually something, an asset, that has high demand but very limited supply. That’s an asset. That’s not a bubble. For example, what happens with oxygen cylinders during COVID? Their prices are bound to rise. Nothing happens there, much less. If that demand is real, then whose demand? That asset’s. Not the inflation of the asset, which is called an increase in the price of the asset. Can you see the difference between the two?
Like what happens in all these pyramid scams? The Greater Fools Theory: Find a bigger fool than yourself. As long as that game is in place, it’s in place. Those at the top get richer. But then a point comes where those at the bottom lose their money.
So, I won’t tell you what my understanding is, or isn’t it? Figure out for yourself whether the Indian stock market is a bubble or an asset. At this point, if you have business knowledge, would you buy a business at the price and price-to-earnings ratio available? Or are you investing in the stock market simply because you’ve been brainwashed and believe it’s the right thing to do, or because everyone else is doing it, so I’m doing it too? Bubbles can be big, they can be small. They can last for a while, they can last a long time. But ultimately, they will burst. Are you able to keep up with me?
What used to happen in the past? This was called the Golden Rule. It was called the 80/20 Rule. Meaning, 80% of people’s money was invested in the stock market. 20% was invested in debt. This ratio was increased. Whenever the market crashed, where did the stock market money go? Debt. What does debt mean? US Treasuries and bonds. Meaning, when the stock market crashes, invest your money in a safe haven. What is that safe haven? US Treasuries. Because whose backing is behind it? The US. And why was it a safe haven? Because the entire world trusted it, believing that this money wouldn’t go anywhere. Why? Because whose guarantee is behind it? The US. Today, whether it’s ordinary people or countries, is your trust in the US increasing? In the last few months or years, or is it decreasing?
When the next crash comes, which is inevitable, no one knows when it will come. It could come in a month, six months, a year, or two years. A crash happens every few years, a big crash. So where will the money go this time? If it doesn’t go into US Treasuries, where will it go? Think of it as complete panic. Imagine you have a habit of smoking cigarettes, and what happens if you don’t get them? Panic. So, this habit is prevalent all over the world. Whenever there’s a problem, money goes into US Treasuries. When US debt itself is a bubble and it is about to burst. No one trusts the US dollar. People are withdrawing money from there. So what will happen? It’s a complete reset of the entire financial system. Can’t you see that?
So we’re in for something very, very big, something that happens once every 100 years. But we have no idea. I was just looking in the newspaper today. The Times of India has a business column. There’s news there that the highest-ever SIP inflows into the Indian stock market came in December. Whose? Yours? Foreign investors, FPIs, and FIIs are withdrawing their money. You’re investing, and not just investing, you’re investing well. There’s a cheap IPO, and you’re investing as if you don’t know what will happen to you if you miss this opportunity. You’re all living in a kind of FOMO, as if this is the only way to get rich. This is the only chance. This means that a company whose valuation should be 1000 crores is now getting valued at 20,000 crores in its IPO. And it’s being oversubscribed 20 times. From this, you can imagine that madness is at its peak. PE firms and VCs are withdrawing their money. Founders are withdrawing theirs. But you guys keep investing your money. It’s as if I know what’s happening in my company, and you don’t. I’m withdrawing my money, and you’re investing in mine. Are you stupid?
The world at this point in time is already at war. Whether you know it or not. War isn’t just what you think it is. World War III means everyone is thinking about themselves. Everyone is concerned about themselves. And war has many forms. There are many types of war. There are civil wars. There are border wars. There are resource wars. There are financial wars. And this war is already going on.
What’s the reason behind it all over the world? You can understand that too if you want to. As you mentioned, if demand is high, it’s an asset, and if demand is low, it becomes a bubble. So, real estate, like gold and silver, is in demand, but as we’ve seen, property prices are so high in big cities, so we’ll consider it a bubble. You answer for yourself. Why should I say that? If we talk about Gurgaon, where we’re sitting right now, a house that cost 2 crores a few years ago is now worth 6 crores, 7 crores, 8 crores. You can’t find a decent house for less than 8 or 10 crores. You can’t even find a flat. So, is this a bubble or not? Right now, it seems like a bubble, sir. But secondly, why don’t you understand this? Why do you have to think so hard before speaking? Do you see what’s happening? Because I’ll explain why. You’ve either already invested in it or are about to. That’s why you won’t accept it’s a bubble.
So, sir, right now I’m thinking about buying a house, so I’m considering two things. Look, I’ve already predicted it. Yes, isn’t it? Because that’s the point, because a person has a stake in something. Like you bought a boat. Now, if that boat is sinking and about to sink, the whole world will see that there’s a hole in it, and it’s going to sink. You’re not ready to accept it. You’ll say, “No, we’ll tape it here. We’ll do this, we’ll do that. Oh, brother, it won’t stop.”
What does a bubble mean? It’s a very simple concept. A flat worth 8 crores. How many of you can afford it? Tell me. It means that if you buy it on EMI, say, you paid 2 crores as a down payment. You’ve financed 6 crores from the bank. If you finance 6 crores for 20 years, how much will the EMI be? One lakh. Exactly. Around ₹50,000 to ₹60,000. How many people can afford to pay a ₹50,000 to ₹60,000 monthly EMI? Millions of people in India do. You’re answering it yourself. Meaning, you already know the answer in the back of your mind. To afford a ₹50,000 to ₹60,000 EMI, you need to earn at least 100,000-150,000 rupees per month. At least, and that too in a job that’s completely stable. Stability is nonexistent today. Which industry has such salaries, and who has them? Is it difficult to figure it out? Are those who have them comfortable, believing their jobs are safe and secure for the next 20 years? Or are they also scared to death? So, why is it so scary to say it’s a complete bubble that will burst sooner or later? It may burst in 1 month, 2 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, but it’s bound to burst until demand and supply in the market match. That means, in reality, the buyer’s pockets don’t actually get anywhere near what they’re willing to pay. Or their income doesn’t increase. Either someone earning ₹3 lakh today suddenly starts earning ₹10 lakh, ₹15 lakh, ₹20 lakh a month in a year. What’s the possibility of that happening? Almost 0%. So what’s the other scenario? A house that’s available today for ₹8 crore becomes worth ₹4 crore. Does that make sense?
This is what happens in every market. For example, a vegetable vendor has a limited stock of a particular item. Now, if too many buyers arrive, what will he do? He’ll raise the price. And if there are no buyers, he’ll say, “What am I going to do with this? I won’t eat all these potatoes myself.” So take it, take it, at any price. That’s what happens. But this entire lobby of real estate companies will never tell you this. A broker will never say anything. Why? Because they’re running their house. What difference does it make to them whether you buy high or low? They’re concerned about their commissions. Plus, they’re concerned about their profits. So what will they say? Oh no, right now you’re buying for 8 crores. Look, in the future, it’ll be worth 20 crores. Look, that house is worth 100 crores. The price is nothing right now. Just wait and see what’s going to happen. Everyone will say the same thing. So, this is a bubble.
Coming back to the topic we’re talking about: what is war? Why does it happen? What’s the reason behind it? What kind of war is going on in the world right now? And at what level? It’s next to impossible for the masses to understand. Because your mind thinks in black and white. It thinks in terms of right and wrong. That there’s a fight. There’s one right and one wrong. That’s not true. No person, community, or country is completely right or completely wrong. But still, there’s an order within them, called peace. World peace, which we’ve witnessed in the last few years. What does that mean? There are two forces that are opposed to each other. But if we take the example of cricket, for example, a match is going on between two teams. Who is in the middle? The umpire. There are two umpires on the ground. If one umpire makes a wrong decision, there’s a third umpire.
Now listen carefully. The teams don’t listen to each other. The fight continues. What happens in that situation? For example, if you get into a fight with someone and you feel that someone has violated your rights or done something wrong to you, what options do you have? There’s the police, the court. Similarly, at the world level, there’s what we call an umpire. So it’s never been the case that there wasn’t any fighting, and there won’t be. There always has been, there always is, and there will always be. But what does peace mean in a match? That both teams accept the umpire’s decision. If someone has a problem with the umpire, there’s a third umpire on hand.
What’s happening in the world right now? Both teams are fighting each other. Just like they were before, but there are two umpires on the field, and they’re also fighting each other. And there’s no third umpire. Everyone says they don’t believe in any third umpire. Complete chaos, complete panic. So anyone is doing anything. Imagine what a scenario would be like where there are no rules. Everyone has thrown away the rulebook. They say they don’t believe any rulebook. They don’t believe the umpire. So someone threw the ball backwards to the wicketkeeper. He bowled from behind, out. A no ball. What is that? There is no no ball. Everything is a yes ball. Everything is a yes ball. A no ball is nothing. So the opponent’s team is getting angry. They’re saying, “What’s this insolence?” They’re saying, “We’ll go one step further.” So the batsman standing there snatched the ball from him, picked it up, and threw it with his hands. This is what’s happening. You guys are laughing because you’re not aware of what’s going on in the world. No one is above anyone. No one is listening to anyone.
What does this mean in this world? Now, all the old rules, whatever they were, are gone. New rules will be made. A new game, new rules, but they will take time to be made. How much time? Until that war is completely over. Either a civil war or a proper war. At a global level. Then there will be a reset. How long will that reset take? 5 to 10 years. That time period is very problematic and harmful for many people, those who are not prepared. For those who are prepared, this problem holds a huge opportunity. So, you have to ask yourself whether you’re ready for this war or whether you don’t know anything about it. You have no idea what’s coming. Because if you know the major powers in this war and their strategies, then by understanding them, you can take the right side at the right place.
I can’t understand anything, right? Everything is being superficial. Our problem is that as soon as something happens that doesn’t fit our understanding, we react with fear. This little understanding, the understanding called knowledge and intuition, has been put together by someone else and fed into our brains like a robot. As soon as anything comes outside of that, we become afraid. We start feeling unsafe. So, war means destruction, and in destruction, nothing is safe. Those at the top know this. Governments know about it. The general public finds out only at the end. Then there’s an outcry. What’s happened? So wake up, consumers, wake up. They say, “Wake up!” Stop listening to these useless people on the internet. Those who say buy this today, tomorrow they say sell this. My video came out, “Silver is the new gold.” After that, I got a lot of videos from people saying, “Buy silver.” Then, as soon as it went down a little, I said, “Sell, sell, sell.” I neither said, “Buy,” nor did I say, “Sell.” I clearly said, “Brother, this is not investment advice. This is my six-month research, which I’m sharing with you in short. Use your own intelligence.” But we don’t do that at all. I listened and started searching for similar videos. Let’s see what other people are saying. Do they have a proper understanding of what they’re doing? Or do they have a motive of their own? If they have a motive, they’ll do it. Or they’ll make you do it, or say only what benefits them. But we don’t understand all this. We view everyone the same way. There are so many videos on YouTube, this is one of them. I have seen it.
Something very big is happening and think why did I say silver only? Why not copper? Go on the internet now. You will find many videos related to copper. Copper is the new gold. Buy copper. I am not saying copper is the new gold. Why? Use your brain. Because copper is not a precious metal. Copper is a metal. It is a commodity. And what is the difference between gold and silver? Use your brain. Why silver? Why not gold? When you begin to understand this deeply, you’ll gradually understand my thought process. All the things I’m saying about this war, which may sound disparate, will all be synthesized. This is called critical thinking. You people look at everything in fragments, but how to look at it holistically, how to understand it, how to connect the dots – that’s intelligence. When you connect all these dots, you’ll understand what role gold plays in this huge war. What role does silver play?
Sir, right now, the demand for EVs is increasing globally. And as lithium is produced, silver metals are used in lithium. So, I think the demand for silver is increasing, so we should give silver more preference than gold. We can’t use gold in any other metal. This is just one part of this big equation I’m talking about. What you said is absolutely correct, but it’s a very small point. There are thousands of other reasons, and if you delve deeply into them, the ground will slip from under your feet. That is, if I sum up everything I’ve said so far and combine them, they may sound disjointed, but they’re all connected. So, see how it all connects.
What did I talk about? Bubbles and assets. So, what is a bubble? Anything whose demand is artificial, or its demand is only because its price is rising and will rise further. This is called the Greater Fools’ Theory. That is, some fools invested in it. Now more fools came along, even bigger ones invested more. And even bigger fools invested more, hoping that its price would rise further. This is a bubble. And the bigger it grows, the worse it will burst.
So, there aren’t just one or two bubbles in the world right now that are about to burst; they’re all ready to burst. There are many bubbles, and they will all burst simultaneously because they’re all interconnected. Listen carefully, understand carefully. Which bubble burst in 2000? Dot-com. Meaning the internet bubble. Just like there’s an AI bubble today. Now you’ll ask, Sir, how did the AI bubble happen? AI is the future. So, the internet was the future. When did I say AI isn’t the future? But still, there was an internet bubble in 2000. Why? At that time, the valuations of internet companies were very high, and their revenues were very low. Their profits were very low. Today, it’s not a bubble. So, AI won’t be a bubble in the next 10-20 years. And AI isn’t a technology bubble. AI is the future. But the valuations of AI companies today are a bubble. The valuations of AI companies today are very high. They are much higher than their revenue generation possibilities. Its hype is very high. This means something much bigger is about to happen. There’s no doubt about it. But it will take 5-10 years to grow. So, we’ve already factored that in, and people are continuing to invest more money into it, in the same way they did with dot-com. So, this AI bubble is ready to burst, and it’s not a small bubble. It’s a huge one. The valuations of these companies are not small. Nvidia alone has a higher valuation than all the companies on the Indian stock market combined. So, understand how big this bubble is and how many such companies there are.
As the picture becomes clear, these companies are investing money with each other and trying to show that one person got an order from there. One person got an order from there, and the other one got an order from there. Meaning, they are mutually inflating each other’s revenues. For example, the adoption of AI technology will reach the actual consumer through these businesses, those businesses which do not already have money today and this technology is not at that level that it can be implemented immediately in every use case. So, how will this bubble burst? Like the bubble burst, but when that bubble burst, where did all the money go? In a hard asset, what were those? US bonds, US treasuries, but these US bonds and US treasuries are a bigger bubble than AI. How much debt does the US have? 38 trillion dollars, which was 36 till some time ago. In a few days, it will become 40 and then even 50.
What happened in 2008? GFC, Global Financial Crisis. What happened at that time? The housing bubble burst. In the US, a lot of money has been invested in commercial real estate at very low interest rates. Now, with higher interest rates, payments have become unviable. That bubble is poised to burst, and it’s also very large. When one bubble, the stock market, bursts, and the other, the housing bubble, imagine how interesting things are going to happen this time. Combine what happened in 2000 and what happened in 2008. The support system at that time, the foundation that existed, or has always existed, is America as a country and its debt bubble, which is supporting both bubbles. So, while these two bubbles burst, the bubble below burst. So, there’s no ground. It’s like a bottomless pit. A free fall.
What was it like at one time? The US’s fiat currency, what does it mean? It’s not backed by gold. That means you can print as much money as you want, give your pieces of paper to the rest of the world, and buy their products and services. Just like the US gave China dollars, it either got products and services manufactured by China or bought their products and services. So what did China get? It got dollars. It had access. So what will China do with those dollars? China bought US Treasury bonds. This set the whole cycle in motion. Now, all the countries are selling US Treasuries and buying gold. So who will buy US Treasuries? When no country buys, companies won’t buy, institutions won’t buy, you people won’t buy, the public won’t buy, then who will buy? Their own Federal Reserve will have to buy. This is called inflation. And when it becomes too high, it’s called hyperinflation. Meaning, the value of the US dollar will collapse rapidly.
And in this entire equation, where the US is on one side and China is on the other, who is the US? He was a global world leader, or if we’re talking about it, a third umpire. Or an umpire. What is he? He’s a player himself, and just like in cricket, there are two teams, but here there are no teams. Each player is playing for himself. His own scoreboard is running. Imagine 11 players in the East, 11 players in the West, all playing for themselves. Meaning, they’re not even related to each other. Something so interesting is happening. But you guys have no idea.
Imagine how interesting a match is going on on the cricket ground. There’s a team, the Western Team, but they’re fighting each other. He’s about to bat. Someone from his own team comes up from behind, grabbing his hand, saying, “Give me the ball, I’ll do it. This ball is mine.” There’s a fight for the ball. It’s amazing. Two players from the batting team are tearing each other’s heads apart. They’re saying, “If you die, I’ll bat. I want to hit.” I have to score runs. Something so interesting is happening. Now are you able to connect every dot?
So what was there in the earlier world? You can call it the old world. And now there is a new world which will be formed in the coming 5-10 years. No one knows how it will be. But there is a strong possibility in that world. There will not be one clear cut power. It is going to be a multipolar world. That means US will remain, China will also remain. Both are nuclear powers. It is not that one will be finished. Both will remain. What was there in the old world? One head of the family. Not anymore, now there are two. And until the US accepts the reality that it will no longer have its way, because there is a huge power sitting in front of it called China and Russia. What will happen until it accepts this? There will be war. Once it accepts this, there will be peace.
What is the US’s strategy and what is China’s strategy in the war that is about to happen? If you understand this, you will understand what is an asset? What is a liability? What is an asset? What is a bubble? In the war that is going on, missiles are being fired at each other all over the world. What is needed for that? What is needed for electronics? What is needed for robotics? What is needed for electric vehicles? Silver. So, silver is not the same as it used to be. That is, what is ingrained in your minds and what you see today in comparison to the past. Silver is in a new reality.
What does that mean? 50 years ago, two brothers, known as the Hunt Brothers, were there. What did they say? In terms of money, silver doesn’t cost much. If we just start buying silver, what do they think? They thought we’d buy a lot of silver. So they started buying silver. As a result, the price of silver rose. Where did it reach? $50 per ounce. Then the exchanges intervened, and the price of silver crashed again. So what was silver at that time? Was it an asset or a bubble? Use your brain. It was a bubble. Why? Because it wasn’t creating any real product. It was just accumulation at that time. Right?
Understand carefully. Silver had intrinsic value, but governments deliberately and strategically destroyed it. When silver was used as a currency, it had a lot of value. The silver-to-gold ratio was 1:15. So, what was one exchanged for 1 kilogram of gold? 15 kilograms of silver. But because silver wasn’t being used anywhere, it was used as a currency. And it had no other use. So what was silver? Useless. So, what did the Hunt Brothers see? Silver was very cheap. Why? Because no one was using it. So, let’s do one thing: buy it. As soon as they started buying, demand increased artificially. Supply was limited, and then when the government intervened, the price collapsed again. That is, the bubble burst. Because nobody actually wanted silver. Neither the people, nor the industries, nor anyone wanted it at that time.
What happened after that? In the next bull run, in 2011, silver returned to the same price it had hit in 1979, during the Hunt Brothers’ time: when did it reach $50 an ounce in 2011? Now the question arises: why did this price remain stuck for so long when everything was becoming more expensive. Everything has become more expensive over the last 50 years? Come on, why is it stuck there? Why is it stuck at $50? Use your brain. Why don’t you ever think about it this way? Why didn’t every asset become expensive?
There are two reasons behind it. One, there was no actual demand. Not even in 2011. So, in 2008, when the housing bubble burst, i.e., the GFC, gold and silver experienced a rapid bull run. Usually, the bull run in precious metals, the cycle of commodities, lasts a little longer. It lasts for many years. So, it peaked in 2011. When silver touched $50 again, the exchanges that existed at that time, or even exist now, easily manipulated the price in the COMEX-LBMA. Why? Because there was no actual demand for silver. There were no buyers. Who were these people causing the price to rise? The public. The public said they would buy silver. Why? Because the price was rising. That’s what you do. When the price of something rises, you get a phobic reaction. You say, “I’ll go and buy more tomorrow,” so the public was flocking to buy.
Many of the big banks have been fined in court. You can see this in the news. The fines for manipulating the prices of precious metals aren’t small. They’re huge. Close to a billion dollars. Such a huge fine. This is what was caught. Now, how did they manipulate prices? It’s very simple. They have unlimited funding behind them. What is that? Fiat currency. So, if, say, 100,000 people come to buy, what will they do? They’ll short Silver with that much. Because what do they need to short? Nothing. And those who are buying don’t actually need the metal. They were buying. Why? Because the price was rising. If the price falls, they’ll sell. They understand this psychology well. Because of this, they’ve controlled the price of silver for the past 50 years.
Think of it like a casino. Gamblers come to play as long as they’re winning. Then, when they’re losing, they play to cover their losses. When they realize they’re robbed and ruined, they run away. So, what did they have? These big banks have unlimited funding from bullion banks. What was it for? To short. How do they short? They don’t actually need silver. You can short 100, 200, or 300 times the actual silver in their vaults through paper contracts. They’ve got leverage. On the other hand, buyers, the public, like you, don’t have any leverage. They have limited money. So, if you’re long, do you understand this language? Long means you’re saying the price is going to rise. So, you’ve already taken on leverage, so if the price goes down even slightly, you’ll be left stranded. It won’t matter to the banks.
So what did the banks do? They waited. Let it go, and let it go, and let it go. As soon as it reached $50, the exchange—which is where the COMEX and L&T—collaborated. And on top of that, the banks were behind it. So what did they do? They increased the margin money. As soon as the margin money was increased, all those who were buying or were long felt pressure to sell, so selling came. These banks came from above and shorted further, bringing the $50 back to $20. This way, where was the price of silver placed? $20-$30.
Now, what happened in the last one year, or say, the last 5-6 years? Something very different happened. This entire scam of theirs was exposed, which was bound to happen, if not today then tomorrow. When was it supposed to happen? When real demand was supposed to come, it did. No one expected it. Meaning, silver has been in deficit for the last five years. Do you understand what this means? You don’t, do you? If you did, you’d understand what I’m talking about. From what level? Meaning, the demand for silver for the last five years has far exceeded the supply, even though silver is extracted from the ground and recycled. So, where is this supply coming from? It’s coming from reserves. Those reserves are depleting rapidly. And recycling silver is next to impossible. And mining capacity cannot be increased.
Now, all this I’m saying is not investment advice of any kind. These are facts, which you can go and verify. Only time will tell what effect this will have on the price. It could increase, it could decrease. I know what will happen, but you have to figure it out for yourself. I know for sure what’s going to happen in the next year or two. But I can’t tell you. I can’t say it clearly. I can only say it’s possible it might fall significantly. So don’t panic, buy. Sell. It might rise. So use your brain. What can I say? Go and ask your financial advisor. What will he say? Hey, there’s nothing in silver or gold. Buy stocks, buy mutual funds, and even regular ones. Don’t buy direct, because regular ones pay commissions. And why are you buying mutual funds? Get insurance. That pays even higher commissions. So use your brain. Do a little research.
Again, I’m saying that I can’t share even 1% of what I’m seeing with you. Look at it this way: for the last 50 years, a commodity has been artificially suppressed. Like a ball filled with air, kept submerged under water. Now, what will happen as soon as you release it? That pressure has built up. That ball will go up. This is called parabolic. Why? Because the pressure is very high.
What is different this time? Now, silver is not an object that you keep for a hobby. You make utensils from it and keep them in your house. It is not some jewellery that you wear. Although it is there, it is a very small fragment of the entire piece. What is actually silver? What is silver? An industrial metal. People have understood this side of it now, but they have not understood the other side. Because people’s memory is weak. They have forgotten. What is that? A precious metal. When will they understand that? When those two big bubbles are ready to burst, that is, stock market and housing, and the support system beneath it was debt, which in itself is a bubble, then when all this bursts, then towards whom will people turn, think about it, real estate also burst, stock market also burst, then what actual assets are left which they can hold and keep with themselves? Gold. And what comes with gold? Whenever we say gold, the whole world thinks of silver. Copper doesn’t come up, right?
So, the question isn’t whether this huge amount of money will go into gold, but whether it will. Because now even major fund houses are saying the same. They once said that 80% of the money should be in equities and 20% in debt. Now they too are saying that 60% should be in equities, 20% in debt, and 20% in gold. These are the banks that have been manipulating the prices because they can see what’s happening. Those banks that were short on silver have now locked in because they’ve realized they can’t control it anymore because there’s actual physical demand. You can control something in paper only as long as there’s no physical demand for the asset behind that paper. But if someone is shorting it with leverage, meaning you’re a bank, say you’ve shorted $10 billion worth of silver, and someone comes along and says, “I don’t care about the price; I just want the actual metal, and the actual metal doesn’t exist.”
Historically, the silver market has been in contango, and it’s currently in backwardation. What does this mean? Spot prices are low, while futures prices are high. Why? Because if you need delivery of that metal after three months, there’s a three-month storage cost. So, futures prices are higher, while spot prices are lower. Now, the exact opposite has happened. If you want silver now, its price is higher, and if you want it in the future, it’s lower. This is called backwardation.
So, something very interesting is happening, and many of you may not even know that China has imposed restrictions on silver exports starting January 1, 2026. It’s a restriction, so to speak. Some people are even calling it a ban. Meaning, if China is imposing restrictions, they aren’t restrictions. They’re complete control over its supply chain. They’ll decide. Now, who should be given the supply and who shouldn’t. This is a fight. Whose fight is it? It’s about the actual metals, the actual assets. And who is at the center of this entire battle? Gold and silver, where there’s chaos all around.
So, whether the prices of gold and silver will rise or fall in the future may matter to you. For me, it doesn’t matter. Because from my perspective, in the current scenario, the price of gold and silver doesn’t matter. What matters is the value of the currency, which I measure in gold and silver. And that’s easier to predict. In other words, it’s difficult to predict whether the prices of gold and silver will rise or fall. But it’s very easy to predict whether the value of a currency, called fiat currency, will rise or fall.
In other words, all governments around the world are increasing their spending, giving more or less freebies. Are they increasing or decreasing their spending? They’re increasing their spending. So what’s needed for that? Money. So they have to print more money and borrow more money, so currency, fiat currency, no matter which country it belongs to, will decline in value in the future, which is why you’ll say, “The value of gold has increased, gold has become expensive, and when it becomes cheaper, I’ll buy it.” It’s diametrically opposite to how you think.
These are the things I explain to my son and daughter at home, “Son, this world is crazy. This world looks at gold and silver and says, ‘It’s expensive, it’s cheap.’ It never looks at the currency. You shouldn’t do that. Because who’s behind the currency? The government.” The government has no religion or faith. No matter which government it is, in any country, it has only one job. What does it want? Votes. How do you get votes? Please people. How do you please them? Distribute money. So, you need money to distribute it, right? Whether you’re in the US, any other country, anywhere. So where will the money come from? It’s fiat currency. You can print as much as you want, and the more you print, the more the value of that currency will decline.
Do you understand the difference between a real asset and a bubble? Fiat currency is a bubble that is about to burst. Do you understand what that means? No, right? Then go and see and read about countries where the fiat currency bubble has already burst. People would go to buy goods, like lentils and rice, and pay money, and the other person would give them goods in return so they and their families could survive. Today, in those countries, they used to get a lot of goods for a little money. Today, they leave with a lot of money. Even after filling it completely, they say, what have you brought? You won’t get anything in return. Is it gold or silver? If you have something real, then talk. Are you bringing these pieces of paper? This is the new world we are about to enter. No one will tell you about it. Why? Because everyone has their own interests. Actually, I don’t want to tell you either. But I have full faith in your stupidity. None of you will understand what I said. So this video will not get any views. So what difference does it make? I tell the truth, right? So, it is possible that I will upload this video. There have been many such sessions in the past, but I got them deleted. I said I am not uploading. Why do I have to do it?
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